Virginia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 50.5% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to gain 50.5% of the vote.

In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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