Jerome model: In Virginia trails by a very clear margin

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 55.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to win only 44.3% of the vote.

In Virginia, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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