DeSart model: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to end up with 50.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.7 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 4.4 percentage points less and Trump has 4.4 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.