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Jerome model in Ohio: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.7% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was predicted to gain 48.7% of the vote.

In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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