Jerome model: Clinton with very clear lead in Nevada

The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 48.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.5% of the vote.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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