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DeSart model: In Nevada trails by a very clear margin


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 0.0%. In comparison, on August 4, Clinton was predicted to gain 51.0% of the vote.

In Nevada, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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