DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Ohio

The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.9% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 4 Trump was still predicted to collect 50.9% of the vote.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 0.0 percentage points.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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