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Primary model shows Trump in the lead


The Primary model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 52.5%. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to collect 52.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.3 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 5.0 percentage points less and Trump has 5.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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