Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.0% for Trump. In comparison, on August 3, Clinton was predicted to win only 48.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.2 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less and Trump has 0.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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