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Primary model shows Trump in the lead


The Primary model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 52.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.3 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 5.3 percentage points less and Trump has 5.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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