The Primary model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to win 52.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.3 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 5.3 percentage points less and Trump has 5.3 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.