Results of a new poll administered by PPP (D)PPP (D) were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Georgia for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 27 to May 30. A total of 724 registered voters responded. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 44.9% for Clinton and 55.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 51.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Georgia. Compared to his numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll Trump's poll average is 3.7 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.