PPP (D)PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
Of those who replied, 40.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from May 27 to May 30, among a random sample of 724 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 44.9% for Clinton and 55.1% for Trump. On August 7 Clinton obtained 55.1% in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results vs. other polls
Trump can currently count on 51.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Georgia. In comparison to his numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll Trump's poll average is 3.7 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.