Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk UniversitySuffolk were published. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees will give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% will give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump. For comparison: Only 45.1% was gained by Clinton in the Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll on August 7, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 54.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.