PPP (D)PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 29 to July 31 with 1505 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-2.5 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.