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Jerome model: Clinton with comfortable lead in Pennsylvania

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, while Trump will end up with 46.5%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to collect only 46.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 51.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 0.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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