Pennsylvania: Solid lead for Clinton in Franklin & MarshallF&M poll

Franklin & MarshallF&M released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2. A total of 389 likely voters responded. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 43.7% was obtained by Clinton in the Franklin & MarshallF&M poll on August 7, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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