Franklin & MarshallF&M released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & MarshallF&M poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2. A total of 389 likely voters responded. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 43.7% was obtained by Clinton in the Franklin & MarshallF&M poll on August 7, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.