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Putting the results in context

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The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will receive 50.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will win 49.7%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 51.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 2.9 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 2.5 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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