SusquehannaSusquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
SusquehannaSusquehanna poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4. A total of 772 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.5%. Relative to her numbers in the SusquehannaSusquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.