The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 54.2% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will win 45.8%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Oregon. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points higher.