The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump in Oregon. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain only 45.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Oregon econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.1%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points higher.