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Jerome model: Trump with clear lead in Oklahoma


The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 43.2% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, whereas Trump will end up with 56.8%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 63.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 5.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.5 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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