The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 43.2% of the two-party vote share in Oklahoma, whereas Trump will end up with 56.8%. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 63.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Oklahoma. This value is 6.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in Oklahoma, which is 5.9 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 9.5 percentage points higher.