Putting the results in context

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Ohio econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points lower.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 0.6 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.5 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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