The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model's forecast is that Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will end up with 50.9%.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently achieves 49.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.3% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 3.7 percentage points higher.