The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.3% for Clinton and 48.7% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically gained similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 50.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.7% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.4 percentage points lower.