CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the candidates of both major parties have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15. A total of 1104 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.