Results of a new poll conducted by SuffolkSuffolk were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular value.
SuffolkSuffolk poll results
The poll was carried out between July 18 and July 20. The sample size was 500 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 50.0% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 49.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 49.5 percentage points. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.3% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Ohio.