SuffolkSuffolk published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions here are of particular importance.
SuffolkSuffolk poll results
According to the results, businessman Donald Trump and former New York Senator Hillary Clinton can draw on equal levels of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from July 18 to July 20, among a random sample of 500 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.