QuinnipiacQuinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome in that state is considered crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
The poll was conducted between June 30 and July 11. The sample size was 955 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.0% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. For comparison: Only 48.8% was obtained by Clinton in the QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll on April 5, for Trump this result was 51.2%.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 49.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 49.5 percentage points. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.3% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Ohio.