Results of a new poll conducted by PPP (D)PPP (D) were published. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
The poll was conducted between July 22 and July 24. The sample size was 1334 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.0% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. To compare: 52.9% was obtained by Clinton in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll on April 26, for Trump this result was 47.1%.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 49.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 49.5 percentage points. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.3% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Ohio.