QuinnipiacQuinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
According to the results, the two candidates can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 41.0% of the vote.
The poll was in the field between June 30 and July 11. The sample size was 955 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.