Results of a new poll conducted by QuinnipiacQuinnipiac were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
According to the results, billionaire Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 41.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between June 30 and July 11. The sample size was 955 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.