PPP (D)PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, real estate developer Donald Trump and former New York Senator Hillary Clinton can draw on identical levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 22 to July 24 among 1334 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.