PPP (D)PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, the two candidates can draw on the exact same level of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 22 to July 24 with 1334 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.