Results of a new poll administered by NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ were distributed. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically won similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ poll results
The results show that both candidates have the exact same level of support, each with 39.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 5 to July 10 among 848 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.