Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular value.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
The poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15 with 1104 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 47.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. To compare: 52.4% was gained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll on July 17, for Trump this number was 47.6%.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 49.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 49.5 percentage points. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.3% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Ohio.