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Putting the results in context


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 50.9%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they often include substantial errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Ohio sees Trump at 49.8% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 49.3% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 3.6 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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