Results of a new poll administered by OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights were distributed. The poll asked participants from Arizona for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 20 to June 20. A total of 1060 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump. For comparison: Only 47.2% was gained by Clinton in the OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll on August 7, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 6.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.