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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in North Dakota

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The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 37.0% for Clinton and 63.1% for Trump in North Dakota. In comparison, on August 7, Clinton was predicted to gain 63.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Dakota econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 59.4%. Relative to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.7 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in North Dakota, which is 3.4 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 15.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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