DeSart model: Trump with comfortable lead in North Carolina

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 53.6%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models often incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 53.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in North Carolina. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 2.3 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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