The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 52.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points lower.