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DeSart model: Trump in New Mexico trails by a small margin

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The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.0% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, while Trump will end up with 47.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 52.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Mexico. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.4 percentage points worse.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.3% in New Mexico. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.2 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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