The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will receive 57.7% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 42.3%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 57.3% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in New Jersey, which is 0.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 5.0 percentage points higher.