DeSart model: Clinton with clear lead in New Jersey

The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.9% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump in New Jersey.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in New Jersey has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.4% in New Jersey. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 4.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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