Putting the results in context

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 49.0%.

Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, you should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.5%. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 0.4 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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