The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
In Florida, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often contain substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in Florida has Clinton at 49.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.6% in Florida. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points lower.