Putting the results in context

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 50.4% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 49.6%.

New Hampshire is traditionally a swing state, where Republicans and Democrats have often achieved similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 52.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Hampshire. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 52.2% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 1.8 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 2.4 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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