GravisGravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Colorado, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
GravisGravis poll results
This poll was conducted from July 7 to July 8, among a random sample of 1313 adults. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.8% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 45.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 45.1 percentage points. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.9% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Colorado.