Results of a new poll carried out by Franklin & MarshallF&M were circulated. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Franklin & MarshallF&M poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2 with 389 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-6.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.4%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Franklin & MarshallF&M poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.