Franklin & MarshallF&M published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Franklin & MarshallF&M poll results
The poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2. A total of 389 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-6.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 43.7% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. To compare: 58.2% was gained by Clinton in the Franklin & MarshallF&M poll on March 29, for Trump this number was 41.8%.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 45.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 45.6 percentage points. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.8% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania.