FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 poll results
According to the results, 41.0% of participants indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from May 15 to May 15. A total of 587 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Georgia polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 51.4%. This value is 0.4 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the FOX 5 AtlantaFOX 5 poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.